Professional gamblers separate themselves from their losing peers by doing one thing: placing only those bets where they have the edge. The term “edge” in this case means a mathematical expectation of a positive return. A professional gambler would never place a $1 bet on craps because, depending on the wager, he would only expect to get back roughly 98 cents. However under certain conditions he may decide to place that same dollar bet on blackjack where he might expect to get back $1.01. In this latter case, he placed the bet because he had the expectation of a positive return. This does not mean he’ll win every bet, far from it. But if he has estimated his edge properly, over the long run he will win more bets than he loses. He will show a long term profit.
Sports bettors use this same calculus. For example, the way that NBA bettors gain an edge is by finding lines, spreads or odds which have been improperly set. This can occur for a wide variety of reasons. Chief among them is uninformed fans making undisciplined, hare-brained bets.
When placing bets, a professional gambler will look at his models derived from tens of thousands of data points. He’ll consider what his minimum return is, what size bet his bankroll can withstand and what the estimated error in his projections are. He will do this using advanced statistical and mathematical techniques like the Kelly Criterion, Gaussian distributions, multiple linear regression and even support vector machines and other computer learning algorithms. To learn more about winning betting strategies on NBA odds visit covers.com.
On the other hand, the recreational fan will think to himself, “Lebron’s gonna rip Steven Curries spleen out then eat it”. Based on such shaky insights, the recreational bettor will proceed to take any line at any price because he views betting primarily as an additional means to root for his favored team.
NBA betting is overflowing with this sort of low-information bettor. What’s more, fans are often so wrapped up in their teams that they just don’t care how much a bet costs at all. This combination of obliviously fanatical bettors and a packed game schedule make the NBA a fantastic vehicle for sports betting.
Covers.com is a leader in sports betting analysis and journalism. Founded in 1995 by veteran sports bettor Teddy Covers, it has the most comprehensive sports book review of any site on the internet. To read more about the techniques the pros use to win, visit covers.com.